BEIJING -- North Korea announced Saturday that
it will send a long-range rocket into space this month, trying to make up for a
public-relations disaster in April when a much-hyped launch failed.
In
the announcement attributed to a spokesman for the Korean Committee for Space
Technology, North Korea said the rocket would carry a "polar-orbiting Earth
observation satellite" for "peaceful scientific and technological"
purposes.
Nonetheless, the launch is seen as a defiant move for an
impoverished country that is already subject to a U.S. ban from developing
nuclear and missile technology.
The timing --
between Dec. 10 and 22, according to the announcement -- coincides with several
sensitive dates on the Korean calendar.
On Dec. 19 there is a closely
contested presidential election in archrival South Korea that could be swayed by
the rocket launch. Perhaps more important on the North Korean calendar, Dec. 17
marks the one-year anniversary of the death of longtime leader Kim Jong Il, who
is believed to have ordered the launch.
A successful launch is also seen
as key to establishing the legitimacy of successor Kim Jong Un, the late
dictator’s son who is still in his 20s.
North Korea had been in the midst
of a propaganda campaign, claiming that it would become a "strong and prosperous
nation" by 2012, which happens to be the centennial of the birth of Kim Il Sung,
the dynasty’s founder.
"It seems like they are trying
to keep up with their declaration that the year 2012 will be the first year of
'strong and prosperous nation,'" said Koh Yoo-hwan, North Korean studies
professor at South Korea’s Dongguk University. "Because that had failed, they
will try and finish the project within this year."
The earlier launch was
an embarrassment for the regime, which had invited foreign television crews into
North Korea to publicize the feat. But the rocket flew for less than two minutes
before splashing into the Yellow Sea, close enough to South Korea that its
intelligence services were able to recover pieces to analyze.
"The
purpose of a rocket launch is for domestic politics," said another South Korean
specialist, Baek Seung-joo at Korea Institute for Defense Analyses. "This is
their chance to recover from embarrassment in April, and also to strengthen the
Kim Jong Un-centered leadership."
In the announcement, North Korea said
the satellite, known as Kwangmyongsong-3, meaning "bright star," had been
"manufactured by its own efforts and with its own technology, true to the
behests of leader Kim Jong Il."
"Scientists and technicians of the DPRK
[North Korea] analyzed the mistakes that were made during the previous April
launch and deepened the work of improving the reliability and precision of the
satellite and carrier rocket, thereby rounding off the preparations to launch,"
the statement read.
The April launch was the third attempt for North
Korea, the last two having taken place in 1998 and 2009. This launch, like the
attempt in April, is to take place from the Sohae military installation on the
country’s west coast near the border with China, and is probably headed south
toward the Philippines. The 1998 and 2009 launches, directed to the east, caused
great consternation in Japan.
Technologically, launching an
intercontinental ballistic missile or satellite is essentially the same, with
the main difference being what the rocket is carrying. The fact that North Korea
is simultaneously developing nuclear weapons has raised fears that eventually
the United States could be within its range.
South Korea's first rocket
from its own territory, Naro-1, was scheduled to launch Thursday, but was
delayed until next year because of technical problems.
In a statement,
the South Korean foreign ministry said Thursday that the North's planned launch
is "a grave provocation and a head-on challenge to the international
community."
The North Korean statement was not a surprise because
satellite intelligence released in recent days showed a movement of trucks
around the launch site, according to 38 North, a think tank affiliated with
Johns Hopkins University.
"If Pyongyang follows past practice in
preparing for a launch, it could be ready to fire a rocket as early as the end
of the first week in December," 38 North said in the report released
Wednesday.
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