KUALA LUMPUR—Malaysia's leading political party clung to its traditional planks – religion, race and economic progress – during a week-long congress to rally members ahead of general elections next year that will determine whether Prime Minister Najib Razak can stay in his job and pursue reforms he sees as key to modernizing the country within stability.
The elections, which must be held by June, are expected to be the most competitive in Malaysian history. They will pit Mr. Najib and his United Malays National Organization, the core of the National Front coalition that has ruled since independence from Britain in 1957, against charismatic opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim, who is making his last shot at premiership. The 64-year Mr. Anwar has said that he will retire if the opposition fails to form the next government.
Mr. Najib and UMNO barons stressed repeatedly at the congress, which concluded Saturday, that the party had lifted the country's ethnic Malay Muslim majority from poverty to economic security over several decades of affirmative action in their favor and had championed Islam within a multi-religious nation that includes Christian, Buddhist and Hindu elements among the minority ethnic Chinese and Indian communities.
UMNO has portrayed the opposition coalition led by Mr. Anwar as an unnatural alliance of Islamic fundamentalists and multi-ethnic and liberal parties that would fall apart if it won power and jeopardize the country's future. The opposition counters that the National Front has stagnated after decades in power and only a more transparent and open society can propel the Southeast Asia country forward.
"Without proper, careful and critical evaluation, changing the government is like having the wrong person to fix something, thereby making it worse, or like trusting a wolf to care for the sheep," Mr. Najib said in a speech to the congress.
Most analysts believe that the National Front will gain a victory that would give Mr. Najib the mandate to push for crucial economic reforms such as reducing costly subsides on food and cooking fuel. He plans to introduce a goods and services tax to boost government revenue to cut reliance on income from oil sales and help shrink a budget deficit that has dogged Malaysia since the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s. Mr. Najib also plans to relax economic preferences for ethnic Malays that could offend his constituents but are needed to spur competition and raise productivity.
But even if he wins, Mr. Najib's political ambitions could be capped if the opposition betters its 2008 electoral score. UMNO is accustomed to big margins and is looking to win back ground after Mr. Anwar led the opposition to its best performance in years in 2008. The opposition captured a record 82 of 222 seats in parliament, robbing the ruling front of its two-thirds majority for the first time, and also won five of Malaysia's 13 states. Since then, the opposition has inched up to 86 seats in parliament but lost control of one state. Mr. Najib, the 59-year-old son of Malaysia's second prime minister, replaced Abdullah Ahmad Badawi in the wake of the debacle and expectations are high for him to stop the opposition's momentum.
"Najib is climbing a steep wall and if he can't make it, he'll perish," said Shamsul Amri Baharuddin, a political analyst who teaches at National University Malaysia.
Still, an upset win by the opposition would be unlikely to derail Malaysia's steady economic growth, analysts said. "At stake are the two individuals, not the country," said James Chin, who teaches politics at the Kuala Lumpur campus of Australia's Monash University.
Generous government spending has helped boost domestic demand which has powered growth at about 5%, cushioning the trade-reliant economy from global downturn. But young Malaysians are concerned about job prospects and sweeping access to the Internet has exposed a wide section of the smart-phone-carrying population to news sources beyond the traditional government-backed media. The opposition has made inroads in urban areas, appealing mostly to youth with its demand to end corruption and promise of a more liberal society. Those aged under 30 make up a quarter of the electorate's 13 million voters, many of whom would be voting for the first time.
Mr. Najib also needs to placate conservative elements of his party who frown upon his policy of seeking to boost patriotism through greater inter-faith and ethnic tolerance. In speeches to UMNO, Mr. Najib often leans on Islam to reinforce his Malay support. Malay Muslims make up about 60% of Malaysia's 29 million people. A frequent theme among conservatives is that only an UMNO victory can protect Malays and their religion and that they risk being sidelined otherwise.
"Why would Malays be sidelined if they lose political power?'' said Zuraida Kamaruddin, leader of the women's wing of the opposition People's Justice Party. "After over 50 years of UMNO in power, is that not enough time to bring up the living standards of the Malays?''
Though Mr. Najib has continued to fare well in surveys as he sharpened his appeal as a moderate keen to accelerate economic growth, perception of UMNO's performance has been lackluster. A June survey by independent pollster Merdeka Center found 64% of voters satisfied with his performance. But only 42% were happy with his government. Criticism rose in April when a protest by thousands of people calling for cleaner elections was quelled by water cannon and tear gas.
Race is at the core of the country's politics. Riots against minority ethnic Chinese in the late 1960s over their perceived dominance of the country led to a more assertive UMNO to carve out race-based preferences for Malay Muslims in jobs, university placements and business. They created a more stable society, but Malaysia's main political strands are divided over whether they have outlived their usefulness or are still needed to cap racial and religious tensions, which flared in 2010 with arson against Christian churches.
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