Chinese police plan to board vessels in disputed seas

BEIJING/MANILA (Reuters) - Police in the southern Chinese island province of Hainan will board and search ships which illegally enter what China considers its territory in the disputed South China Sea, state media said on Thursday, a move likely to add to tensions.

The South China Sea is Asia's biggest potential military trouble spot with several Asian countries claiming sovereignty over waters believed to be rich in oil and gas.

The shortest route between the Pacific and Indian Oceans, it has some of the world's busiest shipping lanes. More than half the globe's oil tanker traffic passes through it.

New rules, which come into effect on January 1, will allow Hainan police to board and seize control of foreign ships which "illegally enter" Chinese waters and order them to change course or stop sailing, the official China Daily reported.
"Activities such as entering the island province's waters without permission, damaging coastal defence facilities and engaging in publicity that threatens national security are illegal," the English-language newspaper said.
"If foreign ships or crew members violate regulations, Hainan police have the right to take over the ships or their communication systems, under the revised regulations," it added.
Hainan, which likes to style itself as China's answer to Hawaii or Bali with its resorts and beaches, is the province responsible for administering the country's extensive claims to the myriad islets and atolls in the South China Sea.
The Philippines, which also has claims to parts of the South China Sea, said the move could violate international maritime laws allowing the right of passage and accused Beijing of trying to escalate tension in the area.

Japan unveils $11bn stimulus package

(Financial Times) -- Japan's government has approved its second round of stimulus in a little more than a month, as prime minister Yoshihiko Noda tries to pep up a flagging economy in the run-up to December's elections.

On Friday the cabinet announced that it would tap reserve funds to spend Y880bn ($10.7bn) on a variety of measures, including rebuilding areas hit by the March 2011 earthquake, employment support and aid to cash-strapped small businesses. The plan is roughly double the size of a package announced in late October, which was also drawn mostly from reserves and aimed at reconstruction efforts.

The stimulus comes as Japan hovers on the brink of a technical recession, its fifth of the past 15 years, as manufacturers cut production amid a steady worsening in their sales and profit outlook. Falling exports were the main contributor to a 0.9 per cent contraction in gross domestic product between July and September, and economists are braced for another in the three months to December. Last week the government slashed its quarterly assessment of business sentiment in all 11 regions of the country -- the first clean sweep since February 2009 -- blaming sluggish output and consumption.

Economic data released on Friday were a little more encouraging, showing an unexpected rise of 1.8 per cent in industrial production from September to October. The nationwide consumer price index (excluding fresh food) was unchanged from a year ago, improving from five months of year-on-year declines to September.

China Moves Forward in Opening Gold Market

China will allow over-the-counter gold trading between banks for the first time Monday, a significant financial reform for the world’s second-largest buyer of the precious metal.

The move reflects the Chinese government’s latest effort to develop Shanghai into a major gold trading center, and mirrors similar developments in the country’s currency and oil markets.

The introduction of interbank trading is intended to develop China into a liquid and market such as London, and demonstrates the government’s readiness to open the market to greater participation by international banks, said Jeremy East, global head of metals trading at Standard Chartered PLC (STAN.LN).

“From a government perspective, gold is seen as currency, and the government is slowly releasing the controls on currency. We expect the [gold] market will be opened up to more foreign banks,” he said.

Given their trading volumes, Chinese banks already play a significant role in determining international gold prices, so the move will have a limited impact on prices, Mr. East said.

China offers a massive gold market, albeit one that is tightly controlled. The country is the world’s biggest gold producer and ranked as the No. 2 gold consumer in the third quarter of this year. It has official gold reserves of 1,054 metric tons, the world’s sixth-largest, World Gold Council data show. But gold exports are banned and only a handful of banks hold import licenses.

Until now, member banks have been able to trade physical gold between themselves on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, but the absence of an over-the-counter market restricted them from becoming market makers in gold. In an over-the-counter market, transactions are quoted and conducted between parties on a principal-to-principal basis rather than being traded through a broker on an exchange.

Tourism New Zealand expects a major boost from “The Hobbit” movie

AUCKLAND- Tourism New Zealand is working hard to convert the international attention New Zealand will draw from the movies, into travel.

In a statement, Tourism New Zealand communication department wants to demonstrate with this campaign how easy it is for people to come to New Zealand, see Middle Earth firsthand and experience all the country has to offer.

Association with The Hobbit movies also offered New Zealand a wider opportunity to enhance its international profile as an innovative and creative nation, and as a great place to make films and do business. A number of government agencies were working together to build a complete 'New Zealand story' covering the tourism, film, and business sectors.

Tourism New Zealand conducts regular research across key markets, with people already considering a trip to New Zealand.

Research conducted in May to July, 2012 found that 57% of people already considering a trip to New Zealand were aware of The Hobbit trilogy.

Of those aware of the films, 87 per cent know they were filmed in New Zealand and 58 per cent are fans of the Hobbit.

Australia told to feed region or risk invasion

In a speech, the chief executive of Australian Agricultural Company, David Farley, said the country needed to pay more attention to the agricultural sector and develop policies to help it lift production.

He noted the world's expanding population and used the analogy of the Huns launching an invasion because of hunger.

Mr Farley said Australia had to use its assets or lose them.

"What moves people? You know you can park your car when it runs out of energy, but a man will always try and feed his family and he will move," he said.

"I think you'll find that the movement of man around the globe has always been about food, about where does he go to feed himself, how does he get feed and sustenance."

Mr Farley also slammed the Federal Government for its lack of investment in the agricultural sector.
Australian Agricultural Company is building a new abattoir in Darwin which it says will directly employ around 260 people, plus another 300 associated jobs and cut thousands of road miles from trucks.

However, Mr Farley says the Commonwealth Government was more interested in putting money into movies than agriculture.

"Ironically though, when we went through it with the Federal Government and it ticked all these boxes, we weren't able to raise one red cent to help us build it and play it out across the whole enterprise," he said.

"It really amazed me, as I said to Simon Crean, you put $27 million into Wolverine and nothing here."

A Triumph for Women From Brunei

LONDON (AP) — Noor Hussain Al-Malki sat in Lane 3, face in her hands, barely a dozen painful strides from where her first Olympic race began.

It was a short, somewhat bittersweet and definitely unprecedented effort.

Malki, 17, was the first Qatari woman to compete in track and field at the Olympics, after the country decided to include female athletes — four in total — in its delegation for the first time.

Wearing a maroon head scarf, long sleeves and leggings, she stood out among the starters in the preliminaries in the women’s 100 meters Friday morning. She was slow out of the blocks, appeared to be very tight, and finally clutched at her right leg before stopping after about 15 meters.

The official result is listed as D.N.F. — did not finish — but just being there was a significant achievement.

After covering her face momentarily, Malki got to her feet and slowly limped off the track. She was then pushed out of the competition arena in a wheelchair.

The conservative Islamic nations Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Brunei were the last countries to enter women in the Olympics, each sending female athletes to London.

Maziah Mahusin of Brunei did not advance out of her heat in the 400 meters, but she did set a new national record when she crossed the finish line in 59.28.

“I’m really proud of myself, even though I didn’t win anything,” said Mahusin, who carried her country’s flag at the opening ceremony. “I’m really happy. I’m really, really happy.”

Tahmina Kohistani of Afghanistan finished way back in the 100 meters Friday and yet with a wide grin. She was the only female representative from Afghanistan on the track.

“I think being here is more important than a gold for me and my country,” said Kohistani, who finished last in her heat but in a personal-best time of 14.42 seconds. “We have a lot of problems in our country.

“So right now, I feel like I have a gold medal.”

Beijing's South China Sea rivals protest passport map

TAIPEI, Taiwan – China has enraged several neighbors with a few dashes on a map, printed in its newly revised passports, that show it staking its claim on the entire South China Sea and even Taiwan.
Inside the new passports, an outline of China printed in the upper left corner includes Taiwan and the sea, hemmed in by the dashes. The change highlights China's longstanding claim on the South China Sea in its entirety, though parts of the waters also are claimed by the Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan, Brunei and Malaysia.

China's official maps have long included Taiwan and the South China Sea as Chinese territory, but the act of including those in its passports could be seen as a provocation since it would require other nations to tacitly endorse those claims by affixing their official seals to the documents.

Ruling party and opposition lawmakers alike condemned the map in Taiwan, a self-governed island that split from China after a civil war in 1949. They said it could harm the warming ties the historic rivals have enjoyed since Ma Ying-jeou became president 4 1/2 years ago.

"This is total ignorance of reality and only provokes disputes," said Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council, the Cabinet-level body responsible for ties with Beijing. The council said the government cannot accept the map.
Philippine Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario told reporters in Manila that he sent a note to the Chinese Embassy that his country "strongly protests" the image. He said China's claims include an area that is "clearly part of the Philippines' territory and maritime domain."

The Vietnamese government said it had also sent a diplomatic note to the Chinese Embassy in Hanoi, demanding that Beijing remove the "erroneous content" printed in the passport.

In Beijing, the Foreign Ministry said the new passport was issued based on international standards.
"The outline map of China on the passport is not directed against any particular country," Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said Thursday.

China maintains it has ancient claims to all of the South China Sea, despite much of it being within the exclusive economic zones of Southeast Asian neighbors. The potentially oil- and gas-rich South China Sea islands and waters

Teachers in Southern Thailand boycott class, shut schools over attacks by muslims insurgents

PATTANI, Thailand – Teachers in a violence-wracked southern Thai province have decided to shut down all primary schools there until the government can guarantee their safety from attacks by Muslim insurgents.

The head of the region's teachers' association said Monday that Pattani province's 332 schools would be closed indefinitely until officials could boost teachers' confidence in their security. Boonsom Tongsriplai said teachers in Narathiwat and Yala provinces would be asked to join the boycott.

A female school principal was killed last Thursday in Pattani's Nongchik district, the latest of scores of teachers targeted by the insurgents.

Narathiwat, Yala and Pattani are the only Muslim-majority provinces in Buddhist-dominated Thailand. More than 5,000 people have been killed since an Islamist insurgency flared in the three southernmost provinces in 2004.

Vietnam's dangerous economic downturn

A little over a decade ago, Vietnam had a booming economy. An economic crisis and mismanagement on all levels have driven the country to the brink of ruin. It's up to the government to save what's left.

Tuan is a young, educated and ambitious Vietnamese from the city of Hanoi. The country's economic golden days of recent allowed him to set aside a small fortune - at least enough for a house for his family. He had even considered buying a car. As an official working for the regional government, he had a decent income. In addition, he invested in real estate and in a television engineering company.

But his optimism has recently become overshadowed by fear and uncertainty. He has now given up the thought of purchasing an automobile. He is worried he will lose his savings and that the real estate market will collapse.

"I don't know how things will turn out. The national debt is weighing heavy on our country's shoulders. In the end, we all have to bear the brunt."

Real estate prices have fallen by 30 percent. Inflation continues to grow; in October 2012, the inflation rate was seven percent. The Vietnamese stock exchange index HNX is at the lowest point it a year. Ratings agencies such as Moody's and Standard & Poor's have downgraded Vietnamese bonds as "highly speculative."

Laos blow historic chance

LAOS were denied a historic win after Indonesia scored a last-minute equaliser to draw 2-2 in the AFF Suzuki Cup Group B opener which was a 10-a-side affair with just over half-an-hour gone at the National Stadium in Bukit Jalil yesterday.

A controversial decision by Hong Kong referee Ng Kai Lam to dismiss Laos' Sopha Saysana when they led 1-0 against 10-men Indonesia robbed the underdogs of what would have been a famous victory.

Kai Lam was the same referee whose questionable decisions allowed Singapore to draw 2-2 with Malaysia from 0-2 down in the last 10 minutes of a friendly match at Jalan Besar in June.

In that match, he wrongly awarded the hosts a penalty and also blew for an indirect free-kick inside the Malaysian box for no apparent reason.

But Laos coach Kiochi Kimura was an elated man, saying: "The players performed very well. The draw is good but I wanted to win."

After Irfan Bachdim and Khampheng Sayavutthi of Laos spurned gilt-edged goalscoring chances early on, Laos were awarded a penalty in the 26th minute when Indonesia goalkeeper Endra Suprapto up-ended Vilayout Sayyabounsou in the box with a sliding last-man challenge.

It marked the end of Sayyabounsou's evening as Indonesia took ages to bring on substitute goalkeeper Wahyu Tri Nugroho before Sayavutthi converted the spot-kick four minutes later.

But in the 34th minute, it was Laos' turn to feel aggrieved as 19-year-old winger Saysana was sent off, though rather harshly, after missing his kick and making contact with Indonesia's Andik Vermansyah, who theatrically collapsed to the ground.

Indonesia forced the pace in the closing stages of the first half as Handi Ramdhan's downward header off a corner was deflected over by Laos goalkeeper Sengphachan Bounthisanh in the 43rd minute.

Cambodian ex-king to be cremated on February 4: PM

PHNOM PENH — Cambodia's beloved former monarch Norodom Sihanouk, who died aged 89 last month, will be cremated on February 4 following an elaborate ceremony, Prime Minister Hun Sen said Monday.

The cremation will be preceded by a procession on February 1 that will see Sihanouk's coffin carried from the royal palace in Phnom Penh to a funeral pyre in a nearby park, the premier said in a speech on national radio.

"It will be a big ceremony," Hun Sen said.

More than a million mourners are expected to line the streets for the lavish procession, which will be broadcast live on television, government spokesman Khieu Kanharith told AFP.

"After the procession, the body will stay at the (cremation) site for three days to give people a chance to pay their respects," he said.

A tall cremation pyre is already under construction near the royal residence.

Sihanouk, who abdicated in 2004 after steering Cambodia through six decades marked by independence from France, civil war, the murderous Khmer Rouge regime and finally peace, died of a heart attack in Beijing on October 15.

The death of the popular royal, who is currently lying in state at the palace, plunged his nation into deep mourning. Hundreds of thousands filled the capital's boulevards when his body returned home from China last month.

New Zealand Energy Announces New Oil Discovery

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA — New Zealand Energy Corp. (TSX VENTURE:NZ)(OTCQX:NZERF) ("NZEC" or the "Company") today announced that the Company has made its fifth oil discovery in the Taranaki Basin of New Zealand's North Island.

The Waitapu-2 well was drilled to a total measured depth of 2,085 metres, encountering approximately 6.2 metres of net pay in the Mt. Messenger Formation, a thick sequence of turbidite sandstones in New Zealand's Taranaki Basin. The Waitapu-2 well is currently flowing at a rate of 325 barrels of oil per day and 800 thousand cubic feet of natural gas per day through a 24/64th inch choke. The well is producing sweet, high-quality 40 degrees API oil that is being trucked to the Shell-operated Omata Tank Farm, approximately 45 km north of the site, and sold at Brent pricing. To date the Waitapu-2 well has produced 1,880 barrels of oil. The well will be flowed for approximately two weeks and then shut-in for pressure build-up. Subject to assessment of ongoing production, a decision will be made to lay 1.3 kilometres of new pipeline to tie-in to the Waihapa Production Station through the existing Copper Moki pipeline.

"The fact that the Waitapu-2 well is flowing from natural reservoir pressure, as the Copper Moki wells did, further confirms NZEC's geological model," said Bruce McIntyre, Executive Director of NZEC. "Most Mt. Messenger wells in the region have required artificial lift almost immediately. We are continuing to refine our geological model based on drilling success to date and interpretation of the recently completed 3D seismic survey, and have many more prospects to drill that we feel are comparable to the Copper Moki and Waitapu discoveries."

The Company's first well drilled at the Waitapu site, the Waitapu-1 well, was drilled to a measured depth of 2,213 metres, then cased and completed across a gross interval of 30 metres in the Mt. Messenger Formation. While a significant sand interval was identified with oil and natural gas shows, the permeability and porosity was such that the well did not yield economic production. The well has been suspended pending further evaluation and/or sidetrack to an alternate target.

NZEC has reached target depth on the third well in its current eight-well program. The Arakamu-2 well, NZEC's first well at the Arakamu site, has reached target depth at a measured depth of 2,380 metres. NZEC has commenced casing the well, with completion to follow. The well encountered 8.1 metres of net pay in two potentially productive zones in the Mt. Messenger Formation. The lower zone will be completed first with the second zone to follow. The Company will announce results from the Arakamu-2 well once testing has yielded enough information for the Company to estimate the well's productive potential, with testing expected to commence in late November. Following completion of the Arakamu-2 well, NZEC will move the rig to spud Arakamu-1A, which is targeting the deeper Moki formation.

NZEC will drill four more wells after Arakamu-1A with the objective of completing its eight-well program and increasing production to 3,000 boe/d(1) by the end of Q1-2013.

NZEC will report its third quarter financial results on November 30, 2012, including a full update on exploration activities and the results of production optimization of the three Copper Moki wells, which are now producing under artificial lift.

On behalf of the Board of Directors

Bruce McIntyre, Executive Director

About New Zealand Energy Corp.

NZEC is an oil and natural gas company engaged in the production, development and exploration of petroleum and natural gas assets in New Zealand. NZEC's property portfolio collectively covers approximately 2.25 million acres (including pending permits) of conventional and unconventional prospects in the Taranaki Basin and East Coast Basin of New Zealand's North Island. The Company's management team has extensive experience exploring and developing oil and natural gas fields in New Zealand and Canada, and takes a multi-disciplinary approach to value creation with a track record of successful discoveries. NZEC plans to add shareholder value by executing a technically disciplined exploration and development program focused on the onshore and offshore oil and natural gas resources in the politically and fiscally stable country of New Zealand. NZEC is listed on the TSX Venture Exchange under the symbol "NZ" and on the OTCQX International under the symbol "NZERF". Forward-looking Statements

Australia Proposes 0.5% Kyoto Emissions Cut Through 2020

Australia proposed to cut its emissions by 0.5 percent compared with 1990 levels in the eight years through2020 as it seeks to join extended targets under the Kyoto Protocol.

The nation’s target was contingent on continued progress of international negotiations toward “serious commitments” from developed and developing countries under a global climate protection deal in 2015, according to a statement on the website of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
Australia’s proposed cut is less ambitious than the minimum 20 percent reduction planned by the European Union and at least 40 percent sought for richer nations by some developing countries including China and India. Nations are meeting in Doha for two weeks from today to continue negotiations over a global climate treaty that would take effect from 2020. Developed countries in the 1997 Kyoto Protocol must cut their greenhouse- gas discharges by an average of about 5 percent from 1990 levels over the period from 2008 through 2012.

“Australia’s announcement today to reduce 0.5 percent since 1990 under obligations of the Kyoto Protocol is not acceptable,” said Martin Kaiser, head of international climate politics for Greenpeace, the environmental lobby group. “We call on them to go up to a 25 percent reduction target,” he said today at a news briefing at climate talks in Doha, Qatar.

Australia’s net cumulative emissions from 2013 to 2020 are now projected to be around 14 percent, or 750 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, lower than they would have been without its carbon price and its Carbon Farming Initiative program, according to the nation’s statement

Laos Summit to Open as Region Regains Momentum

      Asian and European leaders are gathering in the world's most economically vibrant region just as it shows signs of regaining momentum, possibly taking up some of the slack for Western nations.

Government heads and senior deputies from 49 countries in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region open a two-day summit Monday in the tiny Southeast Asian nation of Laos, seeking to strengthen trade and investment ties and promote peaceful development.

But topping the agenda at the Asia-Europe summit, in the corridors of the capital Vientiane if not in the formal meetings, will be Europe's seemingly inexorable debt woes. Asian officials say they want the European leaders, including French President François Hollande and Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti, to explain how they plan to resolve the crisis engulfing Greece, Spain and other nations in one of Asia's top export markets.

The leaders are expected largely to duck Asia's long-standing territorial issues, which have recently worsened relations, especially Japan's ties with China and South Korea. China's premier, Wen Jiabao, has no plans to meet separately with Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, Beijing says. These once-customary bilateral summits have been on hold at global meetings in recent months because of the row over disputed islands.

In Cambodia, Obama Hails ‘Constructive’ US-China Relationship

PHNOM PENH, Cambodia — President Obama today said the United States and China have taken a “cooperative and constructive approach” to their relationship, as he came face-to-face with the rising economic power that his administration is trying to counter-balance in the region.

Meeting with outgoing Premier Wen Jiabao on the sidelines of the East Asia Summit, Obama reiterated his commitment to working with China, despite the tenuous relationship between the two economic superpowers.

“It’s important that our two countries cooperate to build a more secure and prosperous future for the Asia Pacific region and for the world,” he said. “As the two largest economies in the world, we have a special responsibility to lead the way in ensuring sustained and balanced growth, not only here in Asia but globally.”


In his first post-election meeting with a Chinese leader, Obama stressed that “we work to establish clear rules of the road internationally for trade and investment, which can increase prosperity and global growth.”

Obama cast an optimistic tone at what will likely be his last meeting with Wen Jiabao. The Premier and Chinese President Hu Jintao are stepping down following China’s once in a decade leadership changes.

Obama is paying the first visit by an American president to Cambodia, a country trying to emerge from its violent and repressive past. The president arrived Monday night and went straight to what has been described as a “tense” meeting with Prime Minister Hun Sen, the 60-year-old leader who has been in power since former President Ronald Reagan was in the White House.

Did Cambodia's first lady mock Obama with a 'greeting that's meant for servants?'

President Obama's historic first tour of Southeast Asia ended with a questionably disrespectful exchange between the president and Cambodia's first lady, Bun Rany.
Obama became the first ever U.S. president to visit Cambodia earlier this week, when he ended his four-day visit to the region by attending the annual East Asia Summit it was hosting.

Unlike the president's constructive visit to Myanmar, where he met with opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi and praised the country's progress, Obama had made it clear he was only in Cambodia to attend the summit.


The president went straight from the airport to a meeting with Prime Minister Hun Sen that White House officials described as tense, with Obama emphasizing his concerns over the Cambodian leader's poor democratic leadership model and the country's worsening human rights abuses.

Laos’ Hydropower Boom Attracts Regional Attention

The recent decision by the government of Laos to green light the long delayed construction of the massive Xayaburi Dam made headlines across the world. Most analysts and commentators agree the move is controversial, as the dam will likely have significant negative environmental effects within Laos as well as in Cambodia and Vietnam, which lie further down the Mekong.


It is believed that the small Southeast Asian country is planning to build up to seventy hydroelectric dams along the Mekong River and its tributaries, an increase from the previous but already significant estimate of fifty-five. This construction boom will have wider repercussions than extensive environmental damage. It has the potential to alter the geopolitical balance in Southeast Asia.

Even though the Laotian economy has been growing steadily over recent years, the country remains one of the most underdeveloped in Asia. Its gross domestic product per capita (at purchasing power parity) in 2011 was $2,700 and according to World Bank data only 71 percent of the country’s population had access to electricity in 2010.

Political tension eases in Thailand after frustrated anti-gov't rally

BANGKOK, Nov. 25 (Xinhua) -- The short-lived anti-government rally on Saturday resulted in the injury of 82 people, authorities said on Sunday, while the government is assessing whether to lift a special security law which helped curb the rally turnover.

Among those injured in the clashes between Pitak Siam protesters and security officials which involved the use of tear gase and sound trucks, 52 were ordinary people, including 31 men and 21 women, and the rest were police officers and one soldier. the Public Health Ministry announced.

Altogether 22 of them are still being treated at a local hospital, it said.
Earlier reports put the total number of the injured at around 40.
The 137 protesters who were detained for questioning following the clashes have been released without being charged, the Bangkok Post reported, citing a lawyer for the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), a group allied with the Democrat Party and royalist yellow-shirts.

As another sign of ease of political tension, Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra said Sunday morning that the government was ready to lift the Internal Security Act (ISA) once security agencies ensured that the situation has completely returned to normal.

Tanzania: Vietnam Seeks Dar es Salaam's Diplomatic Help

           Hanoi — VIETNAM has requested Tanzania to support her efforts to be recognized as a country with a free market economy among nations.
The appeal was made at the State House in the city of Hanoi, Vietnam, when President Ali Mohamed Shein held talks with his counterpart, President Truong Tan Sang. President Sang said the move would benefit her allies like Tanzania, including Zanzibar.
The leaders concurred that the talks have opened a new chapter in bilateral economic relations. In his explanation, Mr Sang thanked Dr Shein for the visit and said that Vietnam valued the cooperation and historic relationship between the two countries.
President Sang said Vietnam has significant history with Tanzania and thanked Tanzania for supporting her during its struggles for liberation. "Cooperation between the two countries will grow stronger through such frequently exchange visits to share experience and skills for effective implementation of various programmes on various development sectors," President Sang explained.
He assured President Shein on continued support to various development sectors especially agriculture and fishing where Vietnam has made tremendous progress. He further said he was impressed by

Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan protest map of territorial claims in new Chinese passports

TAIPEI, Taiwan – China has enraged several neighbors with a few dashes on a map, printed in its newly revised passports, that show it staking its claim on the entire South China Sea and even Taiwan.

Inside the new passports, an outline of China printed in the upper left corner includes Taiwan and the sea, hemmed in by the dashes. The change highlights China's longstanding claim on the South China Sea in its entirety, though parts of the waters also are claimed by the Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan, Brunei and Malaysia.

China's official maps have long included Taiwan and the South China Sea as Chinese territory, but the act of including those in its passports could be seen as a provocation since it would require other nations to tacitly endorse those claims by affixing their official seals to the documents.

Ruling party and opposition lawmakers alike condemned the map in Taiwan, a self-governed island that split from China after a civil war in 1949. They said it could harm the warming ties the historic rivals have enjoyed since Ma Ying-jeou became president 4 1/2 years ago.

"This is total ignorance of reality and only provokes disputes," said Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council, the Cabinet-level body responsible for ties with Beijing. The council said the government cannot accept the map.
Philippine Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario told reporters in Manila that he sent a note to the Chinese Embassy that his country "strongly protests" the image. He said China's claims include an area that is "clearly part of the Philippines' territory and maritime domain."

The Vietnamese government said it had also sent a diplomatic note to the Chinese Embassy in Hanoi, demanding that Beijing remove the "erroneous content" printed in the passport.

In Beijing, the Foreign Ministry said the new passport was issued based on international standards.
"The outline map of China on the passport is not directed against any particular country," Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said Thursday.

South Korea government think-tank calls for more policy easing

SEOUL (Reuters) - South Korea needs to ease monetary policy further to support its stubbornly weak economy and help mitigate upward pressure on the won, the country's top government think-tank said on Sunday.

The Korea Development Institute (KDI) made the recommendation in a scheduled report, while slashing its 2012 and 2013 growth forecasts for Asia's fourth-largest economy to levels below the central bank's latest projections.

The export-reliant economy is now expected to grow by 3.0 percent next year after expanding 2.2 percent this year, it said, down from its previous forecasts for growth of 3.4 percent in 2013 and 2.5 percent in 2012.

The Bank of Korea's latest growth projections, released last month, are 3.2 percent for next year and 2.4 percent this year.

"Economic growth will remain relatively low at 2.2 percent (year-on-year) during the first half because of uncertainties from the euro zone crisis, but the recovery will strengthen in the second half to 3.7 percent," the institute said.

It said quarterly economic growth for October-December would probably rise to a seasonally adjusted 0.6 percent from 0.2 percent set in the third quarter, but that economic activity would remain weak through the first half of 2013.

Given the sustained stability in consumer prices and slowing household credit growth, the institute said the Bank of Korea needs to take more aggressive monetary policy measures to prevent the economy from losing more momentum.

"It would be appropriate to respond aggressively to sluggish growth through additional rate cuts," it said, adding the political instability around the presidential election in December and concerns about a sharp rise in public debt would limit the scope for massive fiscal expansion.

The Bank of Korea cut the policy rate by 25 basis points each in July and October and many analysts forecast it would further slash the rate from the current 2.75 percent sometime between January and June next year.

The think tank projects 2013 annual average inflation at 2.3 percent, lower than the Bank of Korea's forecast for 2.7 percent. The central bank aims to keep inflation between 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent for the 2013-2015 period.

North Korea Says Kim Urges Crackdown on ‘Rebellious Elements’

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un urged nationwide efforts to crack down on “rebellious elements” in society, the country’s state-run Korea Central News Agency said.
Kim delivered the message to a national meeting of chiefs of social security units and other security personnel yesterday, KCNA reported today.
Security forces should find rebellious people who are maneuvering behind the scenes “to destroy our unity,” and those waiting to act, and “mercilessly crush all of them,”KCNA cited Kim as saying. The report didn’t give any details of such activities.
Kim became head of the totalitarian state in December, following the death of his father, Kim Jong Il, who ruled the secretive nation from 1994 to 2011. He took the country’s top rank of marshal in July, securing his power as leader of the impoverished nation’s 1.2 million-strong armed forces. The promotion came days after Kim fired veteran army chief Ri Yong Ho, in the biggest publicly revealed power shift since his succession.

Singapore's economy expected to grow 1.5% in 2012

SINGAPORE: Singapore's economy is expected to grow by around 1.5 per cent in 2012 and 1.0 per cent to 3.0 per cent in 2013.

Early estimates show that on a year-on-year basis, the economy grew by 0.3 per cent in the third quarter of 2012, following the 2.5 per cent increase in the earlier quarter.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy contracted by 5.9 per cent, after growing by 0.5 per cent in the previous quarter.

Permanent Secretary at the Trade and Industry Ministry Ow Foong Pheng said: "Growth may come in slighter lower than forecast if the weakness in the externally- oriented sectors persists into the final quarter of 2012."

The Trade and Industry Ministry said Singapore's economic growth is expected to remain subdued for the rest of 2012 as sluggish external demand will likely weigh down the electronics manufacturing cluster.

While the construction sector could provide modest growth support to the overall economy, it said the electronics manufacturing cluster would continue to be weighed down by weak external demand.

It also said warned that the 1.5 per cent growth forecast for 2012 may even emerge slightly lower, if the weakness in the externally-oriented sectors persists into the final quarter of 2012.

Growth took a hit mainly from the externally-oriented sectors such as manufacturing and wholesale trade.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the manufacturing sector contracted by 9.6 per cent with a decline in the electronics manufacturing cluster.

On a year-on-year basis, the manufacturing sector declined by 0.8 per cent, compared to the 4.6 per cent expansion in the previous quarter.

The construction sector expanded by 7.7 per cent on-year compared to 12.3 per cent in previous quarter, while the wholesale & retail trade sector contracted by 0.7 per cent on-year, after a 0.4 per cent decline in the second quarter.

On year-on-year basis, the finance & insurance sector declined by 2.7 per cent compared to 0.3 per cent increase in preceding quarter.

The year-on-year growth of the accommodation & food services sector moderated to 2.0 per cent, from 2.9 per cent in the preceding quarter.

MTI said "the growth outlook for the Singapore economy remains cautiously positive" due to the expected sluggishness in the global economy with advanced economies likely to be restrained in growth.

"Growth in externally-oriented clusters such as electronics manufacturing and wholesale trade could remain subdued.

Foreigners beware

COMMERCIAL oil production began in Indonesia in the 1880s. Firms have been drilling for oil and gas there ever since, despite the occasional coup and financial crisis. Still, the country is finding new ways to make life hard for them.

On November 13th Indonesia’s Constitutional Court said that parts of the country’s 2001 oil-and-gas law were unconstitutional, and the court dissolved BPMigas, the state regulator. The constitution says that Indonesia’s natural resources “shall be under the powers of the State and shall be used to the greatest benefit of the people”. The judges took this to mean that a government agency such as BPMigas does not have the authority to oversee reserves and sign production-sharing contracts, especially with foreign firms.

Those firms are worried. The government says that all current contracts will be honoured; and it has quickly transferred regulatory powers temporarily to the energy ministry. Yet even if contracts are honoured, oil giants such as Exxon Mobil, Chevron and CNOOC are wondering what will happen when they come up for renewal. The court recommended that all operations run by foreigners should be handed over to PT Pertamina, the creaky state energy giant, after contracts expire. Indeed Pertamina may again assume the role of regulator, with all the conflicts of interest that implies, unless the government can create a new body sufficiently different from BPMigas to satisfy the court. (Pertamina lost its role as regulator in 2001.)

The immediate effects are unclear. Negotiations with BP, a British oil firm, about a $12 billion expansion of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility in Indonesia’s Papua region, have been halted. BP says it is not worried yet. It is working through an approval process that will not end until 2014 for a plant that will come on stream in 2018. Delays are usual in such a scheme.

Pessimists fear that the ruling is part of a recent surge of economic nationalism. In March the government ruled that foreign miners must sell at least 51% of their Indonesian operations to locals after operating for ten years. Previously they were obliged to sell only 20%, albeit after five years.

If history is any guide, mistreating foreign investors will backfire. Crude-oil production has fallen from 1.4m barrels a day in 2000 to 918,000 last year; Indonesia’s oilfields are old and running dry. Production of gas has risen only from 63 billion cubic metres to 76 billion over the same period, well short of its potential. Political uncertainty spooks investors.

Malaysia ETF Could be Next to be Impacted by Politics

Investors in the U.S. are not even three weeks removed from Election Day, but it is worth noting other investable countries will be holding elections in the coming months. Malaysia, which is expected to hold general elections in six months, is a prime of country that is easily accessible to U.S. investors.

The Asian nation is also a prime example of one that can easily be affected by domestic politics. To that end, the iShares MSCI Malaysia Index Fund (NAR:EWM) is one country-specific emerging markets ETF investors will want to keep an eye on in the coming months.

Year-to-date, the iShares MSCI Malaysia Index Fund is up about 10 percent. That performance puts the ETF well behind comparable rivals such as the iShares MSCI Philippines Investable Market Index Fund (NAR:EPHE) and the iShares MSCI Thailand Investable Market Index Fund (NAR:THD) . EWM has also lagged the SPDR S&P 500 (NAR:SPY) by a decent margin.

In its favor, EWM has outperformed those ETFs tracking Indonesia, Southeast Asia's largest economy. Importantly, one reason EWM has likely lagged SPY is beta. As in EWM qualifies as a low-beta ETF. The ETF's beta against the S&P 500 is just 0.62, according to iShares data.

There is another reason to give EWM strong near-term consideration. Prime Minister Najib Razak, the incumbent, and his Barisan Nasional coalition are facing what is expected to be the tightest election in Malaysian history. Following the country's 2008 elections, Barisan Nasional lost its two-thirds majority in parliament, according to Reuters.

Translation: Malaysia has adopted a familiar tactic seen in U.S. That being the opening of government coffers by the party in power to stimulate economic growth in election years. Emerging markets ranging from China to Brazil have announced major infrastructure largesse this year, Malaysia's own infrastructure program has gone largely ignored by foreign investors.

Duty cut on imports will provide relief to end-users

The Federal Ministry of Commerce is yet to implement the duty cut on import of palm oil products from Malaysia that was supposed to come into effect in early 2012.

The Pakistan government should reduce duty on palm oil products’ imports from Malaysia just like the 15 percent duty cut made for Indonesia, importers said.

The duty cut will provide some relief to end users, who are braving high prices of cooking oil and vegetable ghee in the country.

The palm oil products imports increased by 31 percent during July-October 2012 as compared to the same period last year.

The import was recorded at $1.870 billion in ten months 2012 as against $1.495 billion during same period 2010-11.

Pakistan imports around 8 percent of its total requirements of edible oil products from Indonesia. Major quantity of imports is made from Malaysia.

After linking of the imports with the composite rates of dollar, the increase in edible oil prices hit the masses severely as the price of palm oil in local markets has gone up.

We imported more than 2 million tonnes of edible oil products, that catered to about 76 percent of the total country’s edible oil consumption,” said Pakistan Vegetable Oil Mills Association (PVOMA) member Nasir Ibrahim.

The international price of Refined Bleached and Deodorised (RBD) palm oil is hovering around $800 per metric tonne while the price of palm olein around $790 per metric tonne.

The country consumes around 2.2 million tonnes edible oil every year out of which 0.63 million tonnes is contributed by the local growers and the remaining is imported to bridge the demand and supply gap, he added.

UN mission in East Timor ends

This week Australian and UN troops began the draw-down of peace-keeping operations in East Timor, part of the transition to domestic police and security in the country.

UN mission in East Timor ends (Credit: ABC) 

More than 5,000 UN Police have served with UN Mission in Timor since it began in 2006.

The United Nations peacekeeping mission has been a major source of security and employment over the past decade and while there are concerns about what happens once the peacekeeping mission winds up - the mission itself is widely considered a great success.

Tracee Hutchison spoke to Finn Reske-Nielson, Head of the UN Mission in Timor and Acting Special Representative of the Secretary General for Timor Leste.

Indonesia sugar refining capacity to rise by a third

Indonesia's sugar refining capacity will jump by a third to 4.2 million tonnes next year as three more refineries begin production to try and meet rising demand from the food and beverage industries, an industry group said on Tuesday.

There are now eight sugar refineries in Indonesia, which is set to be crowned the world's top importer of raw sugar in the year to September 2013, with existing capacity of 3.2 million tonnes, Suryo Alam, chairman of the Indonesian Sugar Refineries Association, told Reuters.

Singapore moves to calm OTC energy deals

High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Singapore has moved to calm disruption to its over-the-counter (OTC) energy derivatives by temporarily exempting interdealer brokers without a futures broking licences from the need to have one as brokers try to stave off a loss of business to exchanges.

The move highlights how sweeping regulatory changes enshrined in the Dodd-Frank Act in th US are having a knock-on effect in overseas markets.

Malaysia: Industrial production up

Growth in Malaysia’s industrial production has so far been above expectations, suggesting that the manufacturing sector is supported by domestic expansion and reorientation toward the region even though demand in traditional export markets in the US and Europe look uncertain.

Industrial production grew by 4.9 per cent in the first nine months of 2012, according to official data.

Manufacturing output rose by 5.2 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y), while the other indices included in industrial production – mining and electricity – rose by 5.9 per cent.

Within the manufacturing sector, production of non-metallic minerals, as well as basic and fabricated metal products, grew by 17.7 per cent over the first three quarters of the year; petroleum, chemical, rubber and plastics increased by 1.9 per cent; and electrical and electronic (E&E) products by 4.4 per cent.

Manufacturing is a vital economic driver for Malaysia, accounting for 35 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) when combined with the mining sector.

Mongolia: Filling energy deficit

In September, a group of foreign energy firms revealed plans to invest $1.3bn in a power plant near the capital. France-based GDF Suez, South Korea-based Posco Energy, Japan-based Sojitz and local firm Newcom developed the deal with the government under a 25-year power purchase agreement.

The facility, which is expected to be complete by 2016, will become the country’s fifth thermal power plant (TPP) and supply roughly half of Ulaanbaatar’s energy needs.

The coal-fired, combined heat and power plant will have an electricity capacity of 415 MW and a steam output for heating of 587 MW. The plant will have three circulating fluidised bed boilers that use efficient pollutant control measures. Construction is expected to begin in 2013, according to Sojitz officials.

The news is timely for the city: in October the Ministry of Energy warned the capital’s citizens of an impending electricity shortage that may require the electricity to be stopped in certain areas of the city in December. To make matters more difficult, the country’s freezing winters increase demand on the heating system by up to 18%, adding stress to the current supply.

The new power plant follows the Mongolian government’s granting a licence for a new 600-MW TPP in November 2011 to Canada-based Prophecy Coal, which plans to use coal from the Chandgana Tal deposit, located some 60 km from Underkhann city. The plant will be operated by Prophecy Coal’s Mongolian subsidiary, East Energy Development. “There is an understanding among all stakeholders that Mongolia, being one of world’s fastest-growing economies, needs additional power. With the IMF projecting a deficit of over 600 MW by 2016, this need has become critically urgent and can no longer be delayed,” said John Lee, the chairman and CEO of Prophecy Coal, in November 2011. As of 2011, the current installed power capacity for coal-fired power plants in Mongolia was 814 MW, but only 646 MW was available due to ageing power plants, with most being over 30 years old. At present, just 67% of the population has access to power and 35% to water.

Other power projects are also under development, including a 60-MW power plant for the Mogoin Gol coal deposit, a 12-MW power plant for the Khushuut coal deposit, an 800-MW power plant for the Sainshand industrial cluster, and two 50-MW wind farms, including the Salkhit wind farm.

Inside Japan's Election

Of all the headwinds plaguing Japan's economy in recent years, one of the biggest is political uncertainty. Japan's had seven prime ministers in as many years, making it difficult for leadership to enact meaningful economic reform—something Japan could use in spades. And with the lower house of Parliament dissolved November 15 and a snap election now scheduled for December 16, the revolving doors may soon turn again.
The contest will pit incumbent Yoshihiko Noda of the Democratic Party of Japan (DJP) against Shinzo Abe, new leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). If the LDP takes control, it'll be Abe's second turn at the helm—he succeeded Junichiro Koizumi in 2006 but stepped down less than a year later citing health reasons (more on this in a bit).
The campaign should be … interesting. Noda, who was forced to call early elections after 50 DPJ members left the party to protest his sales tax increase, has put free trade at the center of his manifesto. He's pledged to complete Trans-Pacific Partnership trade talks and a trilateral free trade agreement with China and South Korea. These agreements would no doubt benefit Japan over time, broadening end-markets for domestic exporters and providing consumers more choices and cheaper goods. But they'll likely prove a tough sell in historically protectionist Japan, and Abe's stance against lowering agricultural tariffs may win more support.
Of course, tariffs are but a small piece of Abe's campaign platform, which features a nationalist agenda—likely to win big points with voters amid territorial disputes with China and South Korea, which have raised nationalist fervor to a fever pitch. In recent weeks, Abe has visited the infamous Yasukuni Shrine—the memorial to Japan's war dead whose honorees include Class A war criminals—pressed China on human rights, advocated removing Japan's constitutional ban on waging war and suggested establishing a military presence around the contested Senkaku/Diaoyu islets. All have helped him curry favor amid rising anti-Chinese sentiment: He and the LDP lead current polling, while support for Noda and the DPJ is below 20%.
Compounding matters, however, are two nationalist fringe candidates, former Tokyo governor Shintaro Ishihara and Osaka mayor Toru Hashimoto, who recently created the Sunrise and Japan Restoration parties, respectively. Eighty-year-old Ishihara's long been considered a loose cannon—his threats to use Tokyo money to purchase three of the Senkaku/Diaoyu islets from their private owners are what forced Noda to nationalize the islands (an attempt to preempt tensions with Beijing that backfired), and he's regularly denied the Nanjing atrocities ever occurred. Hashimoto also denies Nanjing and other WWII-era Japanese brutality (particularly aimed at Korean women) and, like Ishihara, has pushed for Japan to acquire nuclear weapons.

China's challenge with corruption

Beijing
Just two years after he founded Communist China, in December 1951, Mao Zedong issued one of his characteristically forthright directives. "We must probably execute 10,000 to tens of thousands of these embezzlers before we solve the problem," he wrote.
The “problem” was corruption, and 60 years later it has not gone away. As he takes the reins, the newest leader of China’s ruling Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is himself making the issue his number one talking point.
Corruption – perhaps the ordinary Chinese citizen’s single biggest complaint against his rulers – “will inevitably doom the party and the state” unless it is curbed, Mr. Xi warned the first meeting of the newly chosen 25 member Politburo last weekend. “All behavior that violates party discipline or the law should be punished without mercy.”
Turning that talk into action, however, will be a tall order in a country where gift-giving is a pillar of traditional culture, a single political party has a stranglehold on power, and bribery is pervasive from top to bottom of society. Some 668,000 party members have been punished for corruption in the past five years, according to official figures that represent only the tip of the iceberg, experts say.
“Controlling corruption will be a huge challenge for any regime,” says Lu Xiaobo, a professor at Barnard, Columbia, who has written a book about official corruption in China. “Realizing that it’s a problem and making it a priority does not necessarily mean they will be successful” in fighting it.

Reason for hope?

China’s citizenry could be forgiven for being skeptical. Their leaders have been decrying corruption – and doing very little about it – for decades. But some corruption experts here say there may be reason for a little more hope this time.

At least 18 dead in China coal mine explosion

Eighteen people were killed and five others are still trapped after an explosion Saturday at a coal mine in the southern Chinese province of Guizhou, state-run media reported.

The accident occurred around 11:00 a.m. at the Xiangshui coal mine in the town of Liupanshui.

Emergency personnel have rescued five miners and were working to pull out the other five who remain trapped.

Chinese coal mines are the most dangerous in the world, with around 3,000 deaths occurring annually due to lack of safety measures and cave-ins caused by overexploitation.

Coal supplies between 60 percent and 70 percent of the energy needs of the world's second-largest economy.

Posted by: Shawn Huyck 

Japan, North Korea begin new talks in Mongolia; Tokyo seeks details on decades-old abductions

TOKYO — Japan and North Korea began talks Thursday in Mongolia that Tokyo hopes will shed light on decades-old abductions.
The meetings in the Mongolian capital of Ulan Bator are scheduled to last through Friday. In August, lower-level negotiators from Japan and North Korea held the countries’ first bilateral talks in four years, but made little progress.
Japan wants information on the abductions of Japanese citizens by North Korean agents in the 1970s and ‘80s. Japan believes at least one abductee may still be alive in the North, though North Korea denies this. Five abductees were returned to Japan in 2002.
Japan and North Korea do not have formal diplomatic relations. The abduction issue and concerns over North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs have long strained ties.
Japanese officials indicated before the start of the talks that they expected them to be tough and not likely to lead to any immediate breakthroughs. North Korea’s official media provided few details, reporting only that they were intended to deal with issues of mutual interest.
Japan has imposed strict sanctions against the North and cut off most economic and cultural exchanges in 2006 after a missile launch. Tensions heightened again earlier this year when the North launched a rocket that it said carried a satellite, but that Japan and other countries criticized as a thinly disguised test of long-range missile technology. The launch failed just after takeoff.

Posted by: Shawn Huyck 

US must clearly back Japan in islands dispute with China

The United States might prefer that the territorial dispute between China and Japan over uninhabited islands simply go away. America, after all, has enough of its own problems to fix. And it’s loathe to meddle in a fight between two of its most important trading partners – countries still grappling with their war-time history.

While the recent flare-ups over their rival claims to islands in the East China Sea may temporarily die down, the underlying causes will not be resolved anytime soon. The dispute also has the potential to escalate into a tempest that threatens the region – and in turn, America’s security.

America rightly wants good relations with both Japan and China. However, sometimes one has to take sides. Intentional ambiguity can be useful in foreign affairs, but not here.

The US, then, should take this moment to ensure its position avoids any ambiguity toward the islands, called Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in China. It should stand far more publicly with its democratic ally, Japan, and against the bullying tactics being applied by China. Asian countries are closely watching.

True, Japan has ongoing territorial disputes with South Korea and Russia. But Japan has not used or threatened force, or applied economic pressure to retrieve what it considers Japanese territory.

Chinese behavior in the last two years starkly differs. Chinese patrol boats continue a cat-and-mouse game of harassment near the Senkakus. Beijing has encouraged and apparently fomented rioting against Japanese interests in China. And it has threatened and carried out economic retaliation against Japan. Chinese officials and media have made crudely aggressive and derogatory statements toward Japan and Japanese people.

Japanese economy contracts; economists, officials predict a recession

TOKYO — Japan’s economy contracted 0.9 percent in the late summer, according to government data released Monday, as officials and economists here warned that the country appears headed toward a recession.

At an annualized rate, Japan’s gross domestic product shrank 3.5 percent, a reversal after two quarters of growth. The drop-off signals the major obstacles facing the world’s third-largest economy as it deals with weakened demand in Europe and a simmering diplomatic spat with China, both of which have hurt Japanese exports.

Japan’s exports for the quarter — a period between July and September — plummeted 5 percent, the steepest drop since immediately after the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami.

“In part, this may have been due to the anti-Japan demonstrations in China and the subsequent boycott of Japanese goods,” Barclays Economics Research wrote in a note after the data were released.

Economists predict that Japan’s economy will shrink again in the next quarter, leading to a technical recession. If Japan goes into recession, it would be its third since 2008, according to Bloomberg News.

“Judging from recent economic indicators, the possibility cannot be ruled out that the Japanese economy is already in a recessionary phase,” Seiji Maehara, Japan’s minister of state for economic and fiscal policy, told reporters.

A potential but modest recovery in 2013 could come if the world’s biggest economies — the United States and China — continue to rebound. “Going forward, developments in Japan’s economy will basically depend on those in overseas economies,” said Masaaki Shirakawa, the governor of Japan’s central bank.

Both U.S. and China Will Appoint New Trade Negotiators

BEIJING — The rare congruence of the U.S. and Chinese political calendars this month, with both countries choosing leaders for the coming years, is about to produce an equally rare replacement of most of each side’s senior trade negotiators, with unpredictable results for bilateral economic relations.

One of the few surprises in the carefully scripted party congress that ended Wednesday was that Commerce Minister Chen Deming lost his seat when delegates chose the members of the Communist Party’s Central Committee for the next five years.

Under party rules, that means he will have to step down as minister at the National People’s Congress next spring. His loss of membership in the Central Committee also meant that he was ineligible to join the Politburo last Thursday and become one of the four vice prime ministers, as some analysts had expected.

Some Chinese analysts say that the broad direction of the country’s international economic policy is clear and consistent and that changes of individuals will not make much of a difference.

“The fundamental policy on international trade is adherence to opening and reform,” said He Weiwen, co-director of the China-U.S.-E.U. Study Center at the China Association of International Trade in Beijing. “It will certainly continue and develop to a new height, including China’s trade policy on the U.S.”

But the significance of Mr. Chen’s departure from the Central Committee has produced a divided reaction among Western experts on China’s policymaking process on international economics. He had a reputation within China for being a gentlemanly figure who chooses his words with care and has not indulged in outspoken denunciations of the West during trade disputes, even as the tone of social media in China has become increasingly nationalistic on economic policy.

China's future leaders face long march to power

Analysts say the front runners for 2022 are Hu Chunhua, a literature graduate who cracked down on protestors in Tibet, and Sun Zhengcai, who spent time as an agricultural researcher in the British countryside.

The two men, both 49, were named to the all-powerful 25-strong Politburo, the nation's second most powerful committee, after last week's pivotal Communist Party congress.

Many believe they are now headed for the inner circle of Chinese politics, the seven-member Politburo Standing Committee which Mr Xi is expected to lead for the next decade.

Mr Xi's own ascension had been expected since 2007, when he was given a position on the standing committee.

Aside from Mr Xi and number-two Li Keqiang, its other members will have to step aside at the next congress in 2017 after they reach retirement age, clearing the way for the next generation to step up.

At the same time Mr Hu and Mr Sun's Politburo colleagues are all significantly older, meaning many will be out of the running for the highest posts in 2022.

"There is a big possibility that both will become China's top leaders in 10 years time as they are the youngest on the Politburo," said Zhang Xin, a political scientist at People's University in Beijing.

"They are in good position for advancement, but they still have to prove themselves in the coming years."

China's choreographed Communist successions are a start contrast to the boisterous elections of Western democracies, and critics say they are out of place in a fast-modernising society with aspirations for greater transparency.